16 October 2025

I have twice previously posted analyses of data on temple construction (1, 2). With the recent death of President Russell Nelson, who announced an unprecedented number of temples, and the announcement in the recent general conference that no further temples would be announced at this time because of the large backlog of announced temples, it is clear that this is the end of an era. The charts here are updates to the previous analysis looking back at the Nelson era now that we are entering a new one.

The data for this come from the same Wikipedia tables as before. I will not focus on the cost projections as much, because my prevoiusly projected peaks in construction costs may yet prove not to materialize given that the actual construction rate appears to have reached a limit, thus spreading the cost over more future years than I assumed previously.

The two areas of interest I will focus on here are the trends in temple space relative to membership, and trends in construction rates.

Member/temple ratio

In the previous analyses, it was particularly instructive to look at total temple space relative to toal membership. I noted that prior surges in construction activity generally had the effect of maintaining the status quo, while the Nelson surge is having the effect of reducing the number of members per temple area to lower levels not seen in decades. An updated plot of this can be seen below.

While the space/membership ratio has begun to drop sharply in the last few years, if temple construction stopped now, we would still be at levels consistent with the filmed endowment era beginning around 1980. Projections are for that ratio to continue to fall sharply, but that ultimately depends on the rate at which the backlog of announced temples are built. The backlog analysis gives some clues about that.

Construction progress

The chart below shows the annual rates of announcements, groundbreakings, and dedications. From the announcement data, it’s clear that the Nelson presidency actually began with more modest numbers of temples announced, around 15 per year for 2018-2020. In the years 2021-2024, the rate more than doubled. Construction has not kept up, leaving a substantial backlog.

The chart below shows an updated backlog analysis. The “planning” and “construction” phases are determined by whether or not a groundbreaking has taken place. Since about 2022, the number under construction has remained steady at around 60 per year, and has not increased beyond that. That is a historically high rate of construction, easily exceeding the 1999 construction boom. It’s clear that a maximum construction rate has been reached, whether imposed by constraints on budget or other resources. And yet, the continued new announcements have kept the planning phase group at roughly 120 since 2024.

the future

The number of dedications per year since 2020 has been in the range of about 15-20 per year. If it’s possible to complete 20 temples per year, the current backlog of nearly 170 temples in planning or construction phases will take over 8.5 years to complete, which would be the end of 2033. Historically, the number in planning phase and construction phase has been relatively balanced. Even if it were assumed that it is sustainable to have 60 temples under construction indefinitely into the future, to bring the planning stage group backlog down to a similar number would still require 3 years to partially clear the current backlog. Based on this, it is plausable that no new temples will be announced in 2026 and 2027, and possibly longer.